Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap
MLB · May 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Cincinnati Reds WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cincinnati Reds at 49% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +2.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Cincinnati Reds
Model
49%
Market
46%
Edge
+2.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
51.0%
—
+ Season record + form
53.3%
+2.3pp
Calibration offset
51.9%
-1.3pp
Platt rescale
50.2%
-1.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.6%
-3.6pp
Line-movement nudge
46.3%
-0.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.8%
+2.5pp
Model performance on Cincinnati Reds picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
25
W - L
12 - 13
Win rate
48%
Avg CLV
+3.9pt
ROI
-3.2%
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.