Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · May 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 45% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Chicago White Sox
Model
45%
Market
42%
Edge
+2.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
44.3%
—
+ Season record + form
44.9%
+0.6pp
Calibration offset
47.1%
+2.2pp
Platt rescale
46.7%
-0.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.8%
-4.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
44.8%
+2.0pp
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