Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · May 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 45% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Chicago White Sox
Model
45%
Market
42%
Edge
+2.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
44.3%
—
+ Season record + form
44.9%
+0.6pp
Calibration offset
47.1%
+2.2pp
Platt rescale
46.7%
-0.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.8%
-4.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
44.8%
+2.0pp
Model performance on Chicago White Sox picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
33
W - L
20 - 13
Win rate
61%
Avg CLV
+4.6pt
ROI
+30.4%
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.