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Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners Recap

MLB · May 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 45% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
Chicago White Sox
136 on FanDuel
Model 45%
Market 42%
Edge +2.4 pts

Solid 2.4% edge at FanDuel (2.36).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
44.3%
+ Season record + form
44.9% +0.6pp
Calibration offset
47.1% +1.9pp
Platt rescale
46.7% +1.8pp
Final model probability
46.7% -0.1pp

Model performance on Chicago White Sox picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
13
W - L
11 - 2
Win rate
85%
Avg CLV
+0.6pt
ROI
+62.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.