Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees Recap
MLB · May 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 43% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +2.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Toronto Blue Jays
Model
43%
Market
40%
Edge
+2.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
35.2%
—
+ Season record + form
33.6%
-1.6pp
Calibration offset
40.3%
+6.7pp
Platt rescale
44.0%
+3.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.8%
-3.2pp
Line-movement nudge
42.3%
+1.5pp
Final model probability
42.9%
+0.6pp
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