Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees Recap

MLB · May 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 43% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +2.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play Dog play

Toronto Blue Jays

Model 43%

Market 40%

Edge +2.9 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

35.2% —

+ Season record + form

33.6% -1.6pp

Calibration offset

40.3% +6.7pp

Platt rescale

44.0% +3.8pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

40.8% -3.2pp

Line-movement nudge

42.3% +1.5pp

Final model probability

42.9% +0.6pp

Model performance on Toronto Blue Jays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

9 - 14

Win rate

39%

Avg CLV

+3.0pt

ROI

-37.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.