Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins Recap
MLB · May 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Atlanta Braves LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Atlanta Braves at 73% against FanDuel's implied 69% — an edge of +3.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Atlanta Braves
Model
73%
Market
69%
Edge
+3.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
59.8%
—
+ Season record + form
63.9%
+4.1pp
Calibration offset
58.3%
-5.6pp
Platt rescale
56.1%
-2.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
55.3%
-0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
72.9%
+17.6pp
Model performance on Atlanta Braves picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
63
W - L
26 - 33
Win rate
44%
Avg CLV
+5.0pt
ROI
-27.7%
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.