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Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins Recap

MLB · May 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Atlanta Braves LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Atlanta Braves at 73% against FanDuel's implied 69% — an edge of +3.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
Atlanta Braves
-227 on FanDuel
Model 73%
Market 69%
Edge +3.5 pts

Solid 3.4% edge at FanDuel (1.44).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
59.8%
+ Season record + form
63.9% +4.1pp
Calibration offset
58.3% -5.4pp
Platt rescale
56.1% -2.4pp
Final model probability
56.1%

Model performance on Atlanta Braves picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
20
W - L
12 - 8
Win rate
60%
Avg CLV
+4.8pt
ROI
+258.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.