Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · May 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Pittsburgh Pirates WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Pittsburgh Pirates at 41% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +3.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Model
41%
Market
38%
Edge
+3.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Final model probability
41.0%
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Model performance on Pittsburgh Pirates picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
19
W - L
10 - 9
Win rate
53%
Avg CLV
+4.1pt
ROI
-2.3%
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.