Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs Recap

MLB · May 06, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Chicago Cubs LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 47% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +3.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play Dog play

Chicago Cubs

Model 47%

Market 44%

Edge +3.1 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

46.9% —

Model performance on Chicago Cubs picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

11 - 14

Win rate

44%

Avg CLV

+1.9pt

ROI

+4.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.