Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays Recap

MLB · May 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Tampa Bay Rays WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Tampa Bay Rays at 45% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +5.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play Dog play

Tampa Bay Rays

Model 45%

Market 40%

Edge +5.4 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

45.1% —

Model performance on Tampa Bay Rays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

24 - 32

Win rate

43%

Avg CLV

+4.1pt

ROI

-11.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.