Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros Recap

MLB · May 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Houston Astros LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 40% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +3.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play Dog play

Houston Astros

Model 40%

Market 37%

Edge +3.1 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

39.9% —

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