Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins Recap

MLB · May 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Miami Marlins LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Miami Marlins at 44% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +3.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play Dog play

Miami Marlins

Model 44%

Market 40%

Edge +3.5 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

43.5% —

Model performance on Miami Marlins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

10 - 10

Win rate

50%

Avg CLV

+2.7pt

ROI

+17.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.