Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins Recap
MLB · May 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Miami Marlins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Miami Marlins at 53% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +2.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Miami Marlins
Model
53%
Market
51%
Edge
+2.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Final model probability
53.4%
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Model performance on Miami Marlins picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Picks
20
W - L
10 - 10
Win rate
50%
Avg CLV
+2.7pt
ROI
+17.8%
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.