Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals Recap

MLB · May 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Cleveland Guardians LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cleveland Guardians at 68% against FanDuel's implied 66% — an edge of +2.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play

Cleveland Guardians

Model 68%

Market 66%

Edge +2.3 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

68.1% —

Model performance on Cleveland Guardians picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

15 - 25

Win rate

38%

Avg CLV

+4.5pt

ROI

-17.6%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.