Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees Recap

MLB · May 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Baltimore Orioles LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 38% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play Dog play

Baltimore Orioles

Model 38%

Market 36%

Edge +2.1 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

37.9% —

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