Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals Recap

MLB · May 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Washington Nationals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Washington Nationals at 45% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +2.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play Dog play

Washington Nationals

Model 45%

Market 43%

Edge +2.3 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

45.4% —

Model performance on Washington Nationals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

17 - 22

Win rate

44%

Avg CLV

+3.4pt

ROI

-17.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.