Alexander Zverev @ Rafael Jodar Recap
Roland-Garros (M) · June 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Rafael Jodar LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Rafael Jodar at 29% against FanDuel's implied 27% — an edge of +2.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.4pp · closed at 4.55 (22.0%)
Solid 2.0% edge at FanDuel (3.65).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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