Rafael Jodar @ Alex Michelsen Recap
Roland-Garros (M) · May 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Rafael Jodar WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Rafael Jodar at 82% against FanDuel's implied 79% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.2pp · closed at 1.22 (82.0%)
Solid 2.4% edge at FanDuel (1.26).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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