Rafael Jodar @ Alex Michelsen Recap

Roland-Garros (M) · May 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Rafael Jodar WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Rafael Jodar at 82% against FanDuel's implied 79% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.2pp · closed at 1.22 (82.0%)

Small Play

Rafael Jodar

Model 82%

Market 79%

Edge +2.4 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Probability cap

81.8% —

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

81.8% —

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