Novak Djokovic @ Joao Fonseca Recap
Roland-Garros (M) · May 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Joao Fonseca WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Joao Fonseca at 37% against FanDuel's implied 35% — an edge of +2.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.3pp · closed at 2.88 (34.7%)
Solid 2.3% edge at FanDuel (2.88).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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