Stefanos Tsitsipas @ Matteo Arnaldi Recap
Roland-Garros (M) · May 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Stefanos Tsitsipas LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Stefanos Tsitsipas at 65% against FanDuel's implied 63% — an edge of +2.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -1.3pp · closed at 1.50 (66.7%)
Solid 2.5% edge at FanDuel (1.59).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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