Brandon Nakashima @ Luca Van Assche Recap
Roland-Garros (M) · May 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Luca Van Assche LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Luca Van Assche at 43% against FanDuel's implied 29% — an edge of +14.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +11.1pp · closed at 3.13 (31.9%)
Model gives 43.1% vs FanDuel's implied 28.6%. No team-rating data — verify before sizing up.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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