Grade My Bet
Whether a bet won tells you almost nothing — one bet is mostly luck. This grades it the way sharps (and our model) do: did you beat the closing line and get a +EV price? Paste the bet below.
The price you locked in.
This is the main grade. Leave blank if you don't have it.
Your honest estimate of how often this bet wins.
Enter the odds you bet, plus the closing odds and/or your win probability.
How the grade works
A bet is a decision, and the decision is good or bad before the ball is even thrown. We judge it two ways:
- Closing line value (the main grade). If you got a better number than the closing price, the market moved your way — you beat the people who set the sharpest line. That's the single best sign of a good bet.
- Expected value. If your true win chance is higher than the price implies, the bet pays more than it should over the long run. That's a +EV price.
This is how we grade ourselves
Every pick on this site is scored against the close, win or lose, and the
running number is public. See the daily graded card
or the full explainer on CLV.
FAQ
How do I know if a bet was good?
By the price, not the result. Beating the closing line and getting a +EV number make it a good decision — even if it lost.
Can a win still be a bad bet?
Yes — a bad price that happens to cash. Over many bets, bad prices lose. Grade the decision, not the luck.
What if I don't know the closing odds?
Enter just your win probability and we'll grade the price on EV alone. Closing odds give the stronger grade.
Bets graded for you, every day
Our model grades its own card against the close — wins and losses, in the open.
See today's graded card
This tool is educational and is not betting advice. Sports betting carries
real financial risk. Bet responsibly and only with money you can afford to
lose. If gambling is causing harm, visit ncpgambling.org or call 1-800-GAMBLER.